Adyen’s stock price plunge: Short-term pain or long-term opportunity?

Adyen’s stock just took a beating.

Shares tumbled nearly 18% in Amsterdam trading after management warned that the second half of 2025 is unlikely to deliver the growth acceleration investors were hoping for.

For a company often seen as one of the strongest names in global payments, this sudden drop naturally rattled investors. But as with any big move in the market, it’s worth asking: what’s really behind the sell-off, and does it change the long-term story?

Quick heads-up: I personally own shares in Adyen. This insight reflects my views only and isn’t meant as financial advice. Please research carefully and decide what works for your own situation.

What happened to Adyen?

The headline number that spooked investors came from Adyen’s half-year results. While revenue and profits were still growing at healthy double-digit rates, they fell short of analyst expectations.

At the same time, management signalled that growth in the coming months would be slower than anticipated. Markets don’t like disappointment, and the stock reacted sharply.

The tariff challenge

A big driver of this cautious outlook is the recent U.S. “de minimis” rule change.

For years, goods under $800 could enter the U.S. duty-free, a policy that fueled the rise of cross-border e-commerce. Many of Adyen’s merchants in Asia-Pacific — especially in China — relied heavily on this.

But with the U.S. government tightening the rules, the economics of shipping low-value goods into the U.S. just got worse.

Higher costs mean fewer consumers are willing to click “buy,” and fewer sales mean fewer transactions flowing through Adyen’s platform. Because Adyen serves many of these global marketplace customers, the impact is immediate and visible.

This is the tough part of being a global payments player: when trade policy shifts, your volumes shift with it.

Source: Adyen H12025 financial results

The FX drag on Adyen

The second challenge is foreign exchange. With a weaker U.S. dollar, Adyen’s reported revenues have taken a hit.

Remember, much of their payment volume is denominated in USD, but they report in euros. Even if the underlying business is strong, currency translation can make the numbers look softer than they are.

To make things more complicated, fluctuations in FX don’t just affect reported results — they also complicate pricing, hedging, and overall margin management. In short, FX volatility is a headwind no global company can completely escape.

Should Adyen investors be worried?

Here’s where I step back. Yes, tariffs and FX are real challenges, and yes, they create near-term uncertainty. But are they permanent features of Adyen’s business model? Not necessarily.

1. Investing is for the long term. Regulatory and currency shifts are part of the global business landscape. They may sting in the short run, but what matters is whether the company can adapt and keep growing over the years, not quarters.

   
   

2. These are short-term challenges. Even the strongest businesses get hit by external shocks once in a while. Whether it’s tariffs, interest rates, or macro cycles, headwinds come and go.

   
   

3. Adyen is taking action. Management isn’t sitting still. They continue to deepen local acquiring relationships, diversify their customer base, and invest in compliance capabilities. These moves help reduce reliance on any single rule or market.

   
   

4. Monitor the fundamentals. At the end of the day, what matters most is whether Adyen keeps winning new customers, expanding margins, and generating free cash flow. If those pillars hold, temporary turbulence is just part of the journey.

Adyen’s sharp stock decline may look alarming, but investors shouldn’t confuse short-term noise with long-term value destruction.

If anything, periods like this remind us why patience and discipline are essential.

The market reacts fast to headlines — but wealth is built by focusing on fundamentals and time horizons measured in years, not weeks.