HDB resale growth slows, private property still rising: What it means for you

A tale of two markets

On 1 October 2025, Singapore’s housing market painted a story of contrasts.

HDB resale prices managed only a 0.4% increase in the third quarter, marking the slowest pace of growth in more than five years. At the same time, private property prices continued their upward climb, rising by about 1.2% quarter-on-quarter, supported by new launches in the city fringe and central regions.

This divergence matters.

For homeowners weighing their next step, for HDB upgraders planning a move, and for investors searching for value, the split between resale and private housing provides key signals about where opportunities and risks lie.

HDB resale: Growth losing steam

The HDB flash estimate for the third quarter showed the Resale Price Index rising from 202.9 to 203.7, extending a run of slower growth for the fourth consecutive quarter.

At 0.4%, this is the weakest quarterly increase since 2020.

The slowdown is not just in prices but also in sales activity. Only 7,157 flats were resold in the third quarter, a drop of nearly 11% compared with a year ago. For the first nine months of 2025, 20,849 resale transactions were recorded, down from 22,562 in the same period last year.

Yet beneath the surface, there are pockets of strength.

Million-dollar HDB flats remain very much a part of the market, with 480 such transactions completed in the third quarter alone.

This suggests that buyers are still willing to pay a premium for well-located or rare flat types, even as overall momentum slows.

Source: The Business Times

Why is HDB resale slowing?

Several forces are at play. The October BTO exercise has drawn some buyers away from resale, offering them newer and often more affordable options.

Policy interventions over the past few years, including higher stamp duties and stricter loan limits, are beginning to show their effects, making buyers more cautious and dampening speculative demand.

Affordability also remains a pressing issue. After years of rapid gains, resale prices are testing the limits of what buyers can comfortably pay, especially in a climate where household budgets are already stretched.

Private property: Still climbing

While the HDB resale market is cooling, the private property market is still running hot.

Prices of non-landed homes gained 1.1% in the third quarter, while landed properties also held firm. The momentum has been strongest in projects launched in the Core Central Region and city-fringe locations, which continue to attract demand from affluent buyers.

Many families are also choosing to bypass the resale market altogether, skipping straight into private condominiums. This creates a double effect: weakening demand in the HDB segment, while adding strength to private housing.

Limited unsold inventory has also tightened competition, and when supply is scarce, prices inevitably rise.

For investors, private property remains attractive as well. Rental yields are healthy, and long-term transformation areas such as Jurong Lake District or the Punggol Digital District continue to offer potential for capital appreciation.

Source: URA

What does it mean for buyers and sellers?

For those looking at HDB resale flats, the slowdown could be a blessing.

With growth easing and transaction volumes falling, buyers have more room to negotiate and greater chances of securing a fairer deal.

Sellers, however, need to adjust their expectations.

The days of runaway resale growth are over, and pricing competitively will become more important, even though larger units and flats in prime locations can still command strong interest.

For private home buyers, the story is different. Prices remain on an upward trend, but momentum may not last forever. It is critical not to overpay in the heat of launches and to focus instead on fundamentals such as location, demand pool, and nearby transformation catalysts.

We wrote an 11-factor playbook on how to choose a resale condo as your best asset. It is free to download, so check it out here.

For investors, the equation is becoming tighter. While rents are robust, higher entry prices compress returns, so the key is to pick developments where long-term growth drivers can offset today’s rising costs.

Risks to watch

Looking ahead, both markets face potential headwinds. Interest rates remain a key factor. If borrowing costs stay elevated, affordability will be tested for buyers of both HDB and private homes.

Policy risks are also present.

Should private prices continue to climb too quickly, more cooling measures could be introduced.

And of course, the broader economic outlook matters. A slowdown in Singapore or abroad could sap demand and bring both markets back down to earth.

The big picture

The divergence between HDB resale and private housing is not unusual. They serve different groups of buyers, shaped by different drivers. What we are seeing now is a natural adjustment.

HDB resale, after years of fast gains, is entering a healthier and more sustainable phase. Private housing, fuelled by wealthier buyers and limited supply, is still riding upward momentum, though not without its risks.

For homeowners and investors, the key lesson is timing and strategy.

If you are upgrading, your resale flat may not fetch as much as you hoped, while your private condo purchase could cost more. That makes it even more important to understand the fundamentals behind every decision.

Final thoughts

Q3 numbers underline a market that is normalising. HDB resale prices are cooling, while private housing continues to draw demand.

This split is not permanent, but it highlights the importance of knowing where you stand in the cycle.

For anyone planning their next move, the right approach is not just to watch the numbers, but to understand what drives them. That is how you buy a home that serves as both a place to live and an asset to build wealth for the future.

Contact us to learn more.