The Bala Curve: What it means for 99-Year homes (and your exit strategy)

Hey friends, it’s Vann here. 👋

Let’s talk about something every Singapore property owner or buyer should know — the Bala curve.

Sounds fancy, right? But trust us, it’s not a math exam.

It’s simply the way Singapore calculates the value of 99-year leasehold land as it decays over time. And it has a very real impact on your property’s resale value.

Here’s the thing — almost all 1.14 million HDB flats are on 99-year leases. And in the private market? More than half of the condos are on 99-year leases as well. So whether you’re buying, selling, or holding, chances are you’re playing in the 99-year game.

When you hear people say, “Don’t worry, 99 years is a long time,” they’re not wrong… but they’re also not telling you the full story.

What exactly is the Bala curve?

Think of the Bala curve like a slide at the playground. At the top (brand new, 99 years left), your property value is almost the same as freehold — about 96% of it.

But as you slide down, the drop gets steeper. With around 60 years remaining, you’re only worth about 80% of the freehold. And once you hit 30 years left, the value falls to around 60%.

The curve isn’t straight. Value doesn’t fall evenly year by year — it’s slow at the start, then much faster toward the end.

Credit: Juan Velasco, Centre for Liveable Cities

A tale of two properties

Let’s make this real.

Example 1: HDB in Queenstown

Take a flat in Queenstown built in the early 1970s. Today, it has about 45–50 years of lease left.

Even though it’s in a prime location, buyers face CPF and loan restrictions because the lease no longer covers them to age 95.

Result? Prices in such blocks are much lower compared to nearby BTOs with fresh 99-year leases, even if the older units are larger. That’s the Bala curve dragging values down as the lease shortens.

Example 2: Condo in East Coast (Mandarin Gardens)

Mandarin Gardens, built in 1986, has about 60 years left on its lease. It’s a massive project with seafront views — attractive on paper.

But despite location and size, the lease decay means buyers discount it compared to freehold condos nearby. Even younger 99-year condos in the area command higher prices. Bala’s curve explains the gap.

“But my condo went up since launch!”

We hear this all the time. A condo launched at $800 psf might be transacting today at $1,600 psf. So did the Bala curve fail? Not really.

Here’s the trick: the Bala curve only describes how the land value of a 99-year leasehold decays relative to freehold. But market prices are also driven by demand, inflation, new MRT lines, schools, and higher land bids.

In the first 15–30 years of a project, market uplift usually outweighs lease decay. That’s why resale condos often appreciate even as the lease runs down.

Take The Bayshore (completed in 1999): it launched around $500+ psf, and today units are transacting at $1,300–1,400 psf. Bala’s curve is still pulling downward, but the overall market growth has been much stronger.

The key difference comes later.

Once a project falls into the 40–50 years remaining lease range, the curve steepens. Financing restrictions bite harder, CPF usage gets limited, and buyers start to shy away. That’s when Bala’s curve overtakes market forces, and prices flatten or decline.

Think of it as two forces fighting:

• Market growth is pushing prices up.

• Lease decay pulling value down.

Early on, growth wins. However, the closer you get to 60, and especially when you have 30 years left, decay begins to take over.

Why does this matter when selling

Here’s the kicker: it’s not just about price, it’s about financing.

• Banks start tightening loans when leases don’t stretch to the age of 95 for the youngest buyer. Buyers either get smaller loans or none at all.

• CPF usage also gets restricted as leases shorten. Once the lease drops below certain thresholds, CPF funds can’t be used at all.

Translation: when you’re trying to sell an older leasehold, your pool of buyers shrinks. Less demand = less power to negotiate.

Our takeaway for you

So what do you do with all this?

If you’re buying, always project ahead.

If you buy a condo today with 70 years left, how many years will remain when you plan to sell? Will the next buyer still be able to use CPF and secure financing? If not, you’re looking at a smaller market and weaker resale demand.

If you’re selling, time matters.

Exiting before major cliff edges — like the 60-year or 30-year milestones — often preserves more value. Holding on too long may force you to accept a steep discount later.

Location still plays a huge role. A 99-year property in a strong location (near MRT, schools, and amenities) can still appreciate well. But no matter how good the location, you’ve got to respect the Bala curve.

The invisible timer

We like to imagine the Bala curve as an invisible timer ticking away above your property.

You can’t stop the timer, but you can decide when to pass the baton to the next buyer — ideally before the timer starts flashing red at the 60-year and 30-year marks.

That’s why when we advise our clients, we don’t just look at today’s price. We always ask: what will this unit look like on the Bala curve when it’s time to sell?